The Dreaded 'R' Word - Recession

On this day in history...

Benjamin Franklin wrote "There never was a good war or bad peace" in 1773.

Alexander Hamilton appointed 1st Secretary of Treasury in 1789.

Stephen Foster's song, "Oh! Susanna" was first performed at a saloon in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on September 11, 1847.

1st newspaper cartoon strip was printed in 1875.

1st commercially successful electric bus line opened in Hollywood in 1910.

Spain left the League of Nation due to Germany joining in 1926.

Boulder Dam was dedicated by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.

Jewish ghettos of Minsk & Lida Belorussia were liquidated in 1943.

1st mobile long-distance car-to-car telephone conversation in 1946.

The twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York City disintegrated after being hit by 2 commercial airliners hijacked by Al Qaeda terrorists in 2001 killing 2793 and unfortunately more due to health risks that occurred from this disaster.

I was originally not going to put this one in because we all should be so firmly aware of it, but an article in yesterday's USA Today entitled, "Is 9/11 Becoming Just Another Calendar Date?" brought back feelings that I had last year in wondering the same.

In December 2001, this date was also proclaimed Patriot's Day by the US Congress.


The Dreaded 'R' Word - Recession

Even the Fed appears to be concerned about the reality of an economic slowdown. It has to. The jobs report showed that August was the first monthly drop in four years. This almost solidified the fact that the Fed will reduce the rate by at the least of 1/4%. It really needs to be at least 1/2%, but...

The mortgage debacle and real estate slowdown are affecting other industries. There have been widespread slowdowns in many industries due to what's happening in these industries. The fallout is there. There have already been cuts with companies providing home siding, nevermind that of the construction industry itself. Kohler, a major plumbing supplier, is cutting back and therefore eliminating jobs. And there are more job losses to come from this. Unfortunately, there has to be. We are already seeing cuts in the automotive, furniture and wood products & semiconductor industries. We've even heard of Home Depot & Lowe's posting lower than expected earnings. You'd have to be blind to not notice that many of these are a direct reflection on what's going on in the real estate world.

So we have unemployment up and consumer confidence down. There is turbulence in the world financial markets because of such. You don't think that this could push the economy toward a recession!

Let's look at the big picture. Many have used the equity in their home for continued consumer spending. This market is tapped with lower home prices & higher interest rates equating to lower household wealth, people will have to reduce spending. We are seeing that with the retail reports.

I hope that we do not head into a recession. Granted, I don't know if the Fed has the ability to stop it. But then again the market can change around quickly. Time will tell. Wish I had a crystal ball, but...

Til next time...Marc It Sold!